Kristiaan Kroon, OMG ANZ
Justin Lebbon, Adwanted Events
Susan Gopperth, Ferrero
Nev Hasan, Foxtel Media
Claire Butterworth, GroupM
Richard Hunwick, Nine
Nicola Lewis, Finecast
Linear TV ad market contraction – the investigation
The breakfast briefing can only be attended my registered attendees, who are also registered for the conference. You can register for the breakfast briefing here.
Depending on which media agency group’s figures you want to use, the value of the [broadcast] linear TV market could decline by 4-10% this year, with some of it heading for broadcaster streaming services but some destined for other media including OOH, cinema and radio/audio.
This special breakfast session investigates these forecasts. We want to know how much agreement there is on the 4-10% figures, and what they would mean for all stakeholders, and whether a contraction like this signifies a meaningful structural shift in ad-supported TV and media more widely.
The figures provoke a myriad of questions and this session will operate under the Chatham House Rule as we seek the answers.
- How much of the forecast linear market contraction can be explained away by a post-pandemic readjustment?
- How much of the lost linear $ market value will go to BVOD instead, and how much to social media and social video?
- How much of the lost linear $ market value will be captured by non-broadcaster, premium television streamers with ad-support (including Studio+ services, other AVOD, FAST and now SAVOD – Subscription with Advertising VOD)?
- Does the price of linear TV, streaming TV (in all its guises) and other media have an impact on where ad budget goes next?
- To what extent are effectiveness considerations (including the value of context and quality of attention) deciding where the ad dollars go next (or are reach/frequency the main factors)?
- What is really happening to linear audiences, especially for younger viewers?
- Are broadcasters successfully capturing digital viewers as they switch from broadcast TV, and how many migratory linear-to-streaming viewers are being captured by SVOD?
- Counting the whole of the expanded ad-supported TV universe (e.g., BVOD, SAVOD, AVOD, FAST), are marketers going to have the same Opportunities to See, and the same reach, as they enjoyed when linear dominated everything?